Preseason Rankings
Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#35
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#153
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#75
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.1% 5.1% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 14.9% 14.9% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 26.8% 26.8% 8.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.2% 51.2% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.1% 48.2% 10.5%
Average Seed 6.3 6.3 6.3
.500 or above 69.5% 69.6% 11.1%
.500 or above in Conference 48.6% 48.6% 10.5%
Conference Champion 6.2% 6.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 12.0% 31.1%
First Four2.4% 2.4% 0.0%
First Round50.0% 50.0% 10.5%
Second Round32.9% 33.0% 9.5%
Sweet Sixteen15.0% 15.0% 7.9%
Elite Eight6.6% 6.6% 7.9%
Final Four2.8% 2.8% 7.9%
Championship Game1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 25 - 310 - 13
Quad 33 - 012 - 13
Quad 45 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 353   Mississippi Valley W 90-58 99.9%   
  Nov 09, 2019 74   @ Oregon St. W 73-72 56%    
  Nov 12, 2019 147   Northern Illinois W 79-66 89%    
  Nov 19, 2019 238   Southern Miss W 80-61 96%    
  Nov 27, 2019 21   Michigan L 68-69 45%    
  Dec 04, 2019 234   UMKC W 82-64 95%    
  Dec 08, 2019 17   Seton Hall W 76-75 52%    
  Dec 12, 2019 39   Iowa W 82-79 60%    
  Dec 22, 2019 241   Purdue Fort Wayne W 90-71 95%    
  Dec 31, 2019 341   Florida A&M W 82-54 99%    
  Jan 04, 2020 68   @ TCU W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 08, 2020 4   Kansas L 75-80 33%    
  Jan 11, 2020 38   Oklahoma W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 15, 2020 15   @ Baylor L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 18, 2020 13   @ Texas Tech L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 21, 2020 49   Oklahoma St. W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 25, 2020 25   @ Auburn L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 29, 2020 15   Baylor L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 01, 2020 24   @ Texas L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 05, 2020 46   @ West Virginia L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 08, 2020 50   Kansas St. W 69-64 64%    
  Feb 12, 2020 38   @ Oklahoma L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 15, 2020 24   Texas W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 17, 2020 4   @ Kansas L 72-83 18%    
  Feb 22, 2020 13   Texas Tech L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 25, 2020 68   TCU W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 29, 2020 49   @ Oklahoma St. L 72-74 45%    
  Mar 03, 2020 46   West Virginia W 80-76 64%    
  Mar 07, 2020 50   @ Kansas St. L 66-67 45%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.9 3.0 1.2 0.1 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.6 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.4 2.1 0.2 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.8 10th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.7 5.7 7.5 9.6 11.0 11.1 10.7 10.2 9.0 6.9 5.1 3.2 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 95.7% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 79.2% 1.7    1.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 50.7% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 21.2% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 67.8% 32.2% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.1% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 2.1 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.2% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 3.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.1% 99.8% 18.4% 81.5% 3.9 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 6.9% 99.2% 11.3% 87.9% 5.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-7 9.0% 97.3% 9.4% 88.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.0%
10-8 10.2% 89.7% 6.6% 83.1% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 89.0%
9-9 10.7% 71.3% 4.5% 66.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 70.0%
8-10 11.1% 42.8% 2.1% 40.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.3 41.6%
7-11 11.0% 16.8% 1.0% 15.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.1 16.0%
6-12 9.6% 4.2% 0.3% 3.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.2 3.9%
5-13 7.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.3%
4-14 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 5.7
3-15 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 51.2% 5.9% 45.3% 6.3 1.9 3.2 5.0 4.8 5.7 6.3 6.3 5.8 4.6 3.8 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 48.8 48.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 97.1 2.9